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What happens next?
WeatherWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on October 4?
53%▲ +8 pp / 1h
Market-implied chance of yes · Polymarket · updated 7:23 PM ET

Why: The market-implied probability moved 9 points higher over the past hour, reaching 53%. No movement was recorded over the prior 24-hour window before that shift.

What to watch: The next catalyst may be updated NWS or MetService forecast guidance for the Wellington area covering Sunday. NOAA's NZWN timeseries page will be the definitive data source once Sunday observations begin publishing.

Open the market →View on Polymarket ↗Closes in 1d 12h · $5K traded
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Numbers from Kalshi, Polymarket and Novig · board updated 7:24 PM ET

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What happens next? · 53% yesWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on October 4?Polymarket ↗