Will the low temperature in New York City be 67-68° on Oct 2, 2026?

NYC Low Temperature Market: 67–68°F Tonight in Focus

Market-implied chance of yes · last 48 hours

62%▲ +19 pp / 1h

Market-implied chance of yes · Kalshi · updated 8:22 PM ET

View on Kalshi ↗Closes in 4h 33m · $2K traded

Movement

Last hour: ▲ +19 pp / 1h
Last day: No reading for this period yet

Why: The market has moved 18 points higher over the past hour, while showing no net change over the prior 24 hours. The recent one-hour move reflects a notable shift in short-term sentiment as tonight's conditions come into clearer focus.

What to watch: The next catalyst may be the late-evening NWS hourly forecast update or any observed temperature readings from NYC official sensors as the overnight low approaches. Conditions early Saturday morning will determine final resolution.

How it settles

Outcome: New York City · 67° to 68°
Settles: Oct 3, 1:00 AM ET
Resolution: Per the platform’s rules
Source: Kalshi ↗
Volume: $2K traded
Updated: Oct 2, 8:22 PM ET

Weather · prices are market-implied probabilities, not predictions or advice.