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Will Republicans win the Senate race in Texas?

Texas Senate 2027: Paxton Market Holds at 38% YES

Market-implied chance of yes · last 48 hours

38%▲ +2 pp / 24h

Market-implied chance of yes · Kalshi · updated 9:06 PM ET

View on Kalshi ↗Closes Nov 3 · $10.0M traded

Movement

Last hour: No change / 1h
Last day: ▲ +2 pp / 24h

Why: The market is up 2 points over the past 24 hours. The past hour shows flat movement. No dramatic shift is apparent — just a modest directional drift toward YES over the prior day.

What to watch: The next catalyst may be Paxton's formal candidacy status, primary developments, Texas polling releases, and any further national party resource allocation announcements heading into 2027 election season.

How it settles

Outcome: Ken Paxton
Settles: Nov 3, 11:00 AM ET
Resolution: Per the platform’s rules
Source: Kalshi ↗
Volume: $10.0M traded
Updated: Oct 2, 9:06 PM ET
Context: Catalyst (Wed): “Republicans see Minnesota fraud scandal as a chance to go on offense in a blue state” — Abcnews.com — NewsAPI

Politics · prices are market-implied probabilities, not predictions or advice.