Will it rain in Philadelphia on Oct 3, 2026?

Rain in Philadelphia Tomorrow? Market at 32%

Market-implied chance of yes · last 48 hours

20%▼ −11 pp / 1h

Market-implied chance of yes · Kalshi · updated 8:22 PM ET

View on Kalshi ↗Closes in 1d 4h · $4K traded

Movement

Last hour: ▼ −11 pp / 1h
Last day: No reading for this period yet

Why: Over the past hour, the YES probability moved 20 points higher, reflecting a notable shift in trader positioning. The 24-hour picture shows no net change, suggesting today's move is a more recent development.

What to watch: The next catalyst may be the evening NWS forecast discussion for the Philadelphia area, overnight model updates, and any change in precipitation timing or track affecting the Saturday window.

How it settles

Outcome: Philadelphia
Settles: Oct 4, 1:00 AM ET
Resolution: Per the platform’s rules
Source: Kalshi ↗
Volume: $4K traded
Updated: Oct 2, 8:22 PM ET

Weather · prices are market-implied probabilities, not predictions or advice.