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Will Bitcoin be above $99,999.99 by Dec 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET?

Bitcoin Six-Figure Question: Will BTC Cross $100K Before Year-End?

Market-implied chance of yes · last 48 hours

40%▲ +3 pp / 24h

Market-implied chance of yes · Kalshi · updated 8:22 PM ET

View on Kalshi ↗Closes Dec 31 · $1.5M traded

Movement

Last hour: No change / 1h
Last day: ▲ +3 pp / 24h

Why: The market has moved 3 percentage points higher over the past 24 hours. Hourly movement is flat. Volume stands above $1.5 million, suggesting meaningful participation, while Bitcoin itself is trading roughly 50% below its all-time high.

What to watch: The next catalysts may be U.S. inflation and employment data releases, Federal Reserve communications, Bitcoin on-chain activity metrics, ETF flow reports, and any regulatory developments in major markets through December.

How it settles

Outcome: Above $99,999.99
Settles: Dec 31, 11:59 PM ET
Resolution: Per the platform’s rules
Source: Kalshi ↗
Volume: $1.5M traded
Updated: Oct 2, 8:22 PM ET
Context: CoinGecko: BTC $62,559 (-1.8% 24h) — 50% below its all-time high — CoinGecko

Culture · prices are market-implied probabilities, not predictions or advice.