Will Republicans win the Senate race in Iowa?

Iowa Senate 2027: Hinson Market Sits at 56% YES

Market-implied chance of yes · last 48 hours

56%▼ −2 pp / 24h

Market-implied chance of yes · Kalshi · updated 8:22 PM ET

View on Kalshi ↗Closes Nov 3 · $1.7M traded

Movement

Last hour: No change / 1h
Last day: ▼ −2 pp / 24h

Why: Over the past hour, the probability moved 2 points higher. Over the past 24 hours, it sits 2 points lower overall — a modest, relatively flat net picture with no dramatic directional shift.

What to watch: The next catalyst may be candidate announcement activity, Iowa polling releases, and whether Democratic recruitment efforts crystallize around a named challenger heading into 2027.

How it settles

Outcome: Ashley Hinson
Settles: Nov 3, 11:00 AM ET
Resolution: Per the platform’s rules
Source: Kalshi ↗
Volume: $1.7M traded
Updated: Oct 2, 8:22 PM ET
Context: Catalyst (Wed): “Republicans see Minnesota fraud scandal as a chance to go on offense in a blue state” — Abcnews.com — NewsAPI

Politics · prices are market-implied probabilities, not predictions or advice.