Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on October 3?

Movement

Last hour

▲ +9 pp / 1h

Last day

No reading for this period yet

Why: The YES probability has moved 11 points higher over the past hour, bringing it from roughly 54% to 65%. No movement was recorded over the prior 24-hour window before that shift.

What to watch: The next catalyst may be updated NWP model runs Friday evening or overnight, any synoptic pattern shifts affecting the Île-de-France region, and early Saturday morning temperature readings at Le Bourget as the day's high begins to take shape.

How it settles

Outcome

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 3 Oct '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. In the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source. If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.

Settles

Oct 3, 8:00 AM ET

Resolution

https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lfpb

Source

Polymarket ↗

Volume

$5K traded

Updated

Oct 2, 9:07 PM ET