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Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

Flávio Bolsonaro at 58% in 2026 Brazilian Presidential Race

Market-implied chance of yes · last 48 hours

58%▲ +1 pp / 1h

Market-implied chance of yes · Kalshi · updated 9:06 PM ET

View on Kalshi ↗Closes Oct 25 · $1.4M traded

Movement

Last hour: ▲ +1 pp / 1h
Last day: ▼ −3 pp / 24h

Why: The probability has eased 3 points over the past 24 hours, while the past hour shows flat movement. No sharp directional shift is present in recent data.

What to watch: The next catalysts may be official candidate registrations, coalition announcements, early polling from major Brazilian institutes, and any legal rulings affecting the Bolsonaro family's electoral standing.

How it settles

Outcome: Flávio Bolsonaro
Settles: Oct 25, 10:00 AM ET
Resolution: Per the platform’s rules
Source: Kalshi ↗
Volume: $1.4M traded
Updated: Oct 2, 9:06 PM ET
Context: Jair Messias Bolsonaro is a Brazilian politician and former military officer who served as the 38th president of Brazil from 2019 to 2023. — Wikipedia

Politics · prices are market-implied probabilities, not predictions or advice.